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#1 May 11 2015 at 4:59 PM Rating: Decent
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Well, not quite, but Hersch is not your average nutter who can be easily dismissed. It sounds plausible, and it adds fire to the already existing tinfoilhattery.

Good times, when you think about it. I can see 2016 ads right now. What difference does it make?
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#2 May 11 2015 at 5:26 PM Rating: Excellent
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What would be in the 2016 ads?

The two major claims would be that the Pakistani government knew about the raid in advance (the US government said they did not) and that they got location intelligence from a retired Pakistani military official who wanted the reward money (the US claim is that they tracked couriers). Neither of these, if proven true, would be anything anyone would really care about.

That we used (and wound up sacrificing one of) classified stealth helicopters for the mission would suggest that the first claim is false or exaggerated. If we had clearance to go in and do it, why would we have used a helicopter designed to evade notice by the Pakistani military? The second I have less opinion about either way: if we DID get the intelligence from a former military official who was selling out his location then... well, that's what the reward money was designed to do. And not saying "Oh, by the way we totally got this information from a Pakistani military guy" would seem to make sense. But I can't see myself giving a shit about it either way. That's pretending that it's a binary proposition of course and that we couldn't have gained information from multiple sources.
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#3 May 11 2015 at 5:32 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
What would be in the 2016 ads?

The two major claims would be that the Pakistani government knew about the raid in advance (the US government said they did not) and that they got location intelligence from a retired Pakistani military official who wanted the reward money (the US claim is that they tracked couriers). Neither of these, if proven true, would be anything anyone would really care about.

That we used (and wound up sacrificing one of) classified stealth helicopters for the mission would suggest that the first claim is false or exaggerated. If we had clearance to go in and do it, why would we have used a helicopter designed to evade notice by the Pakistani military? The second I have less opinion about either way: if we DID get the intelligence from a former military official who was selling out his location then... well, that's what the reward money was designed to do. And not saying "Oh, by the way we totally got this information from a Pakistani military guy" would seem to make sense. But I can't see myself giving a shit about it either way. That's pretending that it's a binary proposition of course and that we couldn't have gained information from multiple sources.


Binary is where it is at these days. Most people can barely handle unary.
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#4 May 11 2015 at 5:55 PM Rating: Excellent
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Eh, even if we reject one for the other, I can't see people caring if we got the intelligence from tracking courier cell phones or a rogue turncoat Pakistani military official. And, if we DID get it from a rogue official, how does that fit into us letting the Pakistani military know that we're swooping in so open a flight path for us? "Hey, one of your guys just told us where Osama bin Laden is so... mind letting us come on in to where you've been hiding him and letting us kill him?" One claim seems to work against the other: If a military guy knew that would imply that the military knew but if we knew that the military knew, why would we work with the Pakistani military to kill him?

Maybe that's handled in the full 10,000 word claim from Hersch. I didn't bother reading through it all. In any event, unless Hersch is saying that we didn't kill bin Laden or that the Pakistani government had already arrested him or something like that this isn't bound to be a major issue.

Edited, May 11th 2015 6:56pm by Jophiel
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#5 May 11 2015 at 6:03 PM Rating: Decent
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Hersch is not your average nutter who can be easily dismissed.

Eh. I wouldn't stake a lot on his reputation.


That we used (and wound up sacrificing one of) classified stealth helicopters for the mission would suggest that the first claim is false or exaggerated


Again, eh. Pakistan knowing and expecting all of the "shoots helicopters down" guys in the entire Pakistani military to be informed to let a few helicopters by without that being leaked aren't really thing that can be conflated. It's more of a safety issue, really. They almost certainly just used the helicopters they most frequently train with that seems to fit the mission profile the best. I wouldn't be surprised to them used in London if US forces were assisting there.
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#6 May 11 2015 at 6:08 PM Rating: Decent
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I'm waiting to hear the exposition that any elements of this mission being called into question, calls the entire endeavor into question, and that bin Laden is still alive and hiding out in the Obama's Presidential suite dressing room.
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#7 May 12 2015 at 7:36 AM Rating: Excellent
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#8 May 12 2015 at 6:07 PM Rating: Excellent
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Hersh's story doesn't make any sense

I'll leave it to the linked article to describe the inconsistencies with the story but the theory itself is weirder than I first thought. Hersh alleges that Pakistan had kept bin Laden prisoner for years with help of the Saudis and used him as leverage against al'Qaeda. But then decided to use him to get more aid from the United States and so brought him to the compound in Abottabad and kept him in the bedroom so US forces could run in and shoot him into a million little pieces and throw the parts out of a helicopter. Then falsify a bunch of "intelligence" that was supposedly seized at the compound.

Soooooo.... okay then.
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#9 May 12 2015 at 7:44 PM Rating: Decent
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I could even see some of the basic parts of his theory being plausible, but then he seriously goes off the rails with stuff like the SEALs scattering bits of Osama's body around, or the crazy explanations he gives for why things didn't appear to happen at all consistent with the theory and how the various nations had to take some pretty silly actions to make things fit with the narrative he's built.

It's entirely plausible that Pakistani intelligence did have Osama, and may or may not have been using him in some way. It's even possible that they offered some deal with the US to trade him for increased influence in Afghanistan or whatever. But, if we assume this starting point, the events that occurred by far support the much more simple story that the US decided to just raid the location they were holding him in rather than make the deal. Which would much better fit all of the events while still allowing for the early nugget bits to fit as well.

Assuming any of it were true at all, of course. I'm just not sure why he feels the need to contort even the potential for a secret deal into some kind of massive global conspiracy. The real world is usually much simpler than that.
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#10 May 12 2015 at 8:06 PM Rating: Excellent
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It just seems bizarre, to think that events could have happened the way he describes. I'm not sure what the point would have been.
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#11 May 12 2015 at 8:14 PM Rating: Good
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Samira wrote:
It just seems bizarre, to think that events could have happened the way he describes. I'm not sure what the point would have been.
...To make Obama/USA look bad?

Just a guess.


Edited, May 12th 2015 8:16pm by Bijou
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#12 May 12 2015 at 8:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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Bad how? The villain was dead, on his watch, either way.

I'm sure I'll understand it once the government finishes taking over Texas by way of WalMart. The nice re-educators will probably tell us all about it.
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#13 May 12 2015 at 8:37 PM Rating: Default
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Samira wrote:
Bad how?
In my experience Obama-haters need neither rational arguments or...well, rational anything. I was just throwing the possibility out there.

















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#14 May 12 2015 at 8:58 PM Rating: Good
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Samira wrote:
It just seems bizarre, to think that events could have happened the way he describes. I'm not sure what the point would have been.


Could be an outgrowth of this rabbit hole.
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#15 May 13 2015 at 6:46 AM Rating: Decent
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Friar Bijou wrote:
Samira wrote:
It just seems bizarre, to think that events could have happened the way he describes. I'm not sure what the point would have been.
...To make Obama/USA look bad?

Just a guess.


Edited, May 12th 2015 8:16pm by Bijou


Lol, you do have a point. I did hear something on the radio that framed conversation about TPP as Obamatrade.

It apparently works too. There are people out there trained to recoil at the name itself. It is odd how good Republics are at messaging.

So this conspiracy will prolly be dubbed ObamaGate

Edited, May 13th 2015 8:50am by angrymnk

Edited, May 13th 2015 8:50am by angrymnk
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#16 May 13 2015 at 7:06 AM Rating: Excellent
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angrymnk wrote:
It apparently works too. There are people out there trained to recoil at the name itself. It is odd how good Republics are at messaging.

Sure. Classic example is that you can get clear majority approval for all the facets of the ACA but if you ask "Do you like Obamacare" you have a clear partisan split.

That said, even at the most cynical, there's plenty of reasons why the Republicans wouldn't want to touch this: The guy who killed bin Laden has made victory laps and is a hero, the conspiracy is that Pakistan has had bin Laden since 2006 (well back into Bush's term), this kills the "torture helped give the information we needed to kill bin Laden!" argument, etc. Ignoring facts and sources and all that, there's no win for anyone to make much out of this.
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#17 May 13 2015 at 7:39 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
I'm just not sure why he feels the need to contort even the potential for a secret deal into some kind of massive global conspiracy.
If you can't get famous for your actions, might as well get famous for something you say. Grassy knoll, vaccination autism, and birth certificates.
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#18 May 13 2015 at 4:50 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
angrymnk wrote:
It apparently works too. There are people out there trained to recoil at the name itself. It is odd how good Republics are at messaging.

Sure. Classic example is that you can get clear majority approval for all the facets of the ACA but if you ask "Do you like Obamacare" you have a clear partisan split.


While I'm sure there are conservatives who recoil at the name itself, I suspect a large portion of that is the "all aspects of the ACA" being polled failing to actually include the 800lb gorilla that is "mandate that everyone have health insurance" (combined with a set of things that must be covered which some conservatives may not like). The other aspects aren't that significant to conservatives as long as we're free to buy or not buy the insurance that we want.

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That said, even at the most cynical, there's plenty of reasons why the Republicans wouldn't want to touch this: The guy who killed bin Laden has made victory laps and is a hero, the conspiracy is that Pakistan has had bin Laden since 2006 (well back into Bush's term), this kills the "torture helped give the information we needed to kill bin Laden!" argument, etc. Ignoring facts and sources and all that, there's no win for anyone to make much out of this.


Yeah. Because it's somewhat ridiculous to even suggest that Hersh's reasons involve being 'anti-Obama', or partisan at all, for that matter. He's been a pretty equal opportunity conspiracy theorist/revealer along the way.
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