Does anyone else feel like the percentages given for successfully completing a step, whether it's crafting or gathering, are not actually representative of your results over a long term? I can understand some incidental deviations, like striking HQ consecutively while gathering, or hitting every Touch step without missing, but some abilities just don't feel like they're hitting as often as they should be. Those Hasty Touch + Steady hand 2 steps sure as hell don't feel like 80% to me. If I could run a simulator, I bet I would consistently miss more than 20 times in 100 attempts. I almost would prefer if instead of percentages, our chances of success were gauged as Poor-Low-Medium-Fair-High.
Anyone else feel like the math is inaccurate?
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Star Swirl on Behemoth AKA Best-hemoth AKA The Cool Kid's Table----60AST, 60WHM, 60SCH/SMN, 60BLM, 60MNK, 38 PLD, 34DRG, 31NIN, 27MRD
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Just like with anything else in life, you'll notice (and complain about) the failures more than the successes.
People complain a lot about Hasty Touch, but the fact is that 80% success is still not that high of a rate. It's still one fail out of five, which feels about right in my experience. If you only had 80% melee accuracy back in FFXI, for instance, you would easily notice occasional strings of misses.
People complain a lot about Hasty Touch, but the fact is that 80% success is still not that high of a rate. It's still one fail out of five, which feels about right in my experience. If you only had 80% melee accuracy back in FFXI, for instance, you would easily notice occasional strings of misses.
Fynlar wrote:
Just like with anything else in life, you'll notice (and complain about) the failures more than the successes.
People complain a lot about Hasty Touch, but the fact is that 80% success is still not that high of a rate. It's still one fail out of five, which feels about right in my experience. If you only had 80% melee accuracy back in FFXI, for instance, you would easily notice occasional strings of misses.
People complain a lot about Hasty Touch, but the fact is that 80% success is still not that high of a rate. It's still one fail out of five, which feels about right in my experience. If you only had 80% melee accuracy back in FFXI, for instance, you would easily notice occasional strings of misses.
I guess what I'm saying is, even if I ran 100 simulations, 100 strikes each simulation, that's 10,000 strikes in total, I don't think it'd wind up being an 80% success rate. That's why I stressed consistency, and acknowledged occasional deviations.
Star Swirl on Behemoth AKA Best-hemoth AKA The Cool Kid's Table----60AST, 60WHM, 60SCH/SMN, 60BLM, 60MNK, 38 PLD, 34DRG, 31NIN, 27MRD
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Someone needs to make a mod to Active Combat Tracker to track XIV crafting success rates.
Catwho wrote:
Someone needs to make a mod to Active Combat Tracker to track XIV crafting success rates.
You're hired. Have it on my desk by next reset.
Star Swirl on Behemoth AKA Best-hemoth AKA The Cool Kid's Table----60AST, 60WHM, 60SCH/SMN, 60BLM, 60MNK, 38 PLD, 34DRG, 31NIN, 27MRD
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I agree..a lot of people complain about it (and not because you'll complain about the failures) but because there's even the occasional miss/fail at 100% which is a long standing bug. For example I have a node that gives me say, 90% NQ and 25% HQ..yet I miss 4 swings at 90%.
Now, I know enough basic math that you're only getting a 10% fail rate at that point. 4 missed swings in a row at 10% is definitely possible..but extremely unlikely it should happen in normal circumstances because you have a faaaaaaaaaaar better chance of succeeding at 90% than you are at failing 4 swings in a row. In a larger sample size, say you get 75 swings on a node..it'll make far more sense to get successive fails, but SE's math has always been known to be odd, especially in ARR.
Now, I know enough basic math that you're only getting a 10% fail rate at that point. 4 missed swings in a row at 10% is definitely possible..but extremely unlikely it should happen in normal circumstances because you have a faaaaaaaaaaar better chance of succeeding at 90% than you are at failing 4 swings in a row. In a larger sample size, say you get 75 swings on a node..it'll make far more sense to get successive fails, but SE's math has always been known to be odd, especially in ARR.
Quote:
90% NQ and 25% HQ..yet I miss 4 swings at 90%.
That happened to me while leveling MIN to 60 a bunch of times. The odds of that happening at all are awful. The odds of it happening more than once are basically 0.
svlyons wrote:
If random outcomes aren't acceptable to you, then don't play with random people.
Archmage Callinon wrote:
Quote:
90% NQ and 25% HQ..yet I miss 4 swings at 90%.
That happened to me while leveling MIN to 60 a bunch of times. The odds of that happening at all are awful. The odds of it happening more than once are basically 0.
Exactly. There's something very fishy about these supposed percentages. The fact that improbable things happen as such common occurrences means something isn't be calculated correctly. Maybe abilities like Steady Hand are undervalued by the system, as in it's not actually applying a full 30% to your chance to hit.
Star Swirl on Behemoth AKA Best-hemoth AKA The Cool Kid's Table----60AST, 60WHM, 60SCH/SMN, 60BLM, 60MNK, 38 PLD, 34DRG, 31NIN, 27MRD
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FFXI- Derpypony on Asura
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I got the impression it had more to do with the RNG seeding, or lack of seeding. I found that I was more likely to repeat an improbable random result if I pushed my buttons in line with the GCD. So if I clicked my mining target in time with the animation for instance, I'd be more likely to repeat an improbable result (such as missing on a 90% chance).
Once I realized this, I started adding a delay after something like that would happen and then it would pretty much stop. It's hard to know for certain since it IS such an improbable event in the first place. I can't really be sure if I got a new RNG seed or if it just didn't happen again on its own.
My best guess here is that the random number generator is keyed to something that doesn't change as frequently as it probably should to be in charge of that. Perhaps the global server tick.
Once I realized this, I started adding a delay after something like that would happen and then it would pretty much stop. It's hard to know for certain since it IS such an improbable event in the first place. I can't really be sure if I got a new RNG seed or if it just didn't happen again on its own.
My best guess here is that the random number generator is keyed to something that doesn't change as frequently as it probably should to be in charge of that. Perhaps the global server tick.
svlyons wrote:
If random outcomes aren't acceptable to you, then don't play with random people.
garethrogue wrote:
Catwho wrote:
Someone needs to make a mod to Active Combat Tracker to track XIV crafting success rates.
You're hired. Have it on my desk by next reset.
Whoa now. I'm just an analyst. I can get you the Business Requirement Document and a mock up, but you'll need a real programmer for anything else.
In the words of Master Splinter, "I made a funny! HAHAHAHAHAHA!"
Star Swirl on Behemoth AKA Best-hemoth AKA The Cool Kid's Table----60AST, 60WHM, 60SCH/SMN, 60BLM, 60MNK, 38 PLD, 34DRG, 31NIN, 27MRD
FFXI- Derpypony on Asura
Check out the Dream Network, a Twitch.tv community for XIV fans, featuring notable streamers like Mr. Happy, MTQcapture, Rahhzay, and Slyakagreyfox! http://dreamnetwork.tv/forum/index.php
Then maybe check out myself, EquestriaGuy, on twitch at http://www.twitch.tv/equestriaguy
FFXI- Derpypony on Asura
Check out the Dream Network, a Twitch.tv community for XIV fans, featuring notable streamers like Mr. Happy, MTQcapture, Rahhzay, and Slyakagreyfox! http://dreamnetwork.tv/forum/index.php
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